Time to read a different textbook
I have already ranted before about how I feel the meaning of democracy has been lost in the modern era but I feel even more needs to get off my chest. For the past three decades we have lived in a world that has essentially bastardized the idea that government is “for the people” and that it involves the “rule of the many”. Much of it has to do with the economization of politics; in other words, policies that result in economically efficient outcomes or that promote freedom of choice are necessarily those that deepen democracy. Even at the height of the financial crisis in 2008, George W. Bush summarized this belief best: “If you seek economic growth, if you seek opportunity, if you seek social justice and human dignity, the free market system is the way to go.” How deep this belief was ingrained in mainstream thought that one of his advisers and also one of the most cited economists of our day, Gregory Mankiw, echoed these sentiments almost to the letter: “Free markets remain the best way to promote growth, create good jobs, and ensure rising living standards”.
For those of us who fortunately did not get brainwashed by free market fundamentalism, the unraveling of the Reagan-Thatcher consensus after the 2008-09 crisis has become an intellectual vindication served on a silver platter. Unfortunately, despite the overwhelming evidence that macroeconomic policymaking since the 1980s has been counterproductive to growth, we’re still far away from obtaining a consensus in believing that it has also fundamentally destroyed the way that democratic societies function. Why? Because too much of the population and too much of academia still believes in certain nonsense dogmas that have been passed on through generations of teachers and students, mentors and apprentices. Like a religion, there is an overwhelming sense of guilt at abandoning these dogmas; not least because in a society that frowns upon error (especially in academia), admitting you’ve been wrong all along is a one-way ticket to professional disgrace. Continue reading
Setting Europe ablaze
As an economist, it’s hard to look at the financial news coming out of Europe recently and not get a sense of déjà vu. In the last few weeks we have witnessed the most severe stock market crashes since the post-Lehman meltdown, a major European bank has needed to be bailed out, the recovery appears to have petered out (on both sides of the Atlantic no less) and frantic discussions are taking place in the upper echelons of power in order to starve off what many believe is another imminent disaster. I don’t want to sound nostalgic but it sure is feeling like the summer of 2008, this time with Europe rather than Wall Street at the center of the gathering storm.
But it’s time to stop and think for a minute. How did we get from a debt crisis in a peripheral member of the Eurozone, to openly contemplate the breakdown of the world’s biggest and most solid economic union? To answer this question, it is necessary to see the current European crisis from two separate angles. The first is through the simple logic of economic fundamentals of debt and growth. As I will try to prove in this post (and its follow ups), the fundamentals are actually not as dire as most people think. However, the second angle is indeed quite frightening. It is that of a market crisis, triggered by a loss of confidence in European policymakers’ ability to effectively address a series of worst case scenarios related to the integrity and future of the Eurozone. Will any of these scenarios actually play out? Only if markets believe they will, thus becoming a textbook case of a self-fulfilling prophecy of apocalyptic proportions. Because if there’s anything to be learned from economic history, it is that when reason and panic collide, panic will always win out.
What follows is my humble attempt at trying to put reason back into the spotlight. So put down the latest newspaper or magazine cover story on the Euro breaking apart, turn off that video with the ranting analyst preaching doom and gloom. Let’s look at the cold hard facts. Continue reading